Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Moskovskaya Gazeta on the dynamics of world oil prices, oil production and exports in Russia in 2025.
Oil and condensate production in Russia in the IEF baseline scenario will increase in 2025 to 519 million tons per year (+0.6% YoY), said Alexey Belogoryev.
According to Alexey Belogoryev, in light of the outbreak of military confrontation between Israel and Iran, much on the global oil market will depend on the nature and duration of the Iranian response and the extent to which the United States and its Arab allies in the Persian Gulf will be involved in the conflict."At the same time, Russian companies will not be able to take full advantage of the easing of restrictions within OPEC+ due to problems on the sales and logistics side, including constant sanctions pressure on the shadow fleet. Exports of oil with condensate will increase to 246 million tons (+2.5% YoY) against the background of still relatively weak demand from Russian refineries," the expert predicts.
"There is still a lot of uncertainty here, but I would first raise the forecast for the average annual oil price in 2025 to $71/bbl (-11% yoy)," the expert predicts. — There will be a downward trend in prices, but the growth of the "geopolitical premium" will slow down this process. This is good news for OPEC+ and the budget revenues of the participating countries. Rising prices are likely to keep Russia's oil export revenues at last year's level. Export revenues of the Russian Federation will decrease anyway, but not within 10% yoy, as they could, but within 5%. The main losses of the state budget are not related to exports, but to a reduction in MET payments for oil, the rates of which depend on world prices."
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