Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the 2024 outcomes for the Russian oil industry and its prospects in 2025.
According to Alexey Belogoryev, due to the exhaustion of the opportunity to reduce production, as well as the growth of oil production in non-OPEC+ countries, the alliance de facto moved from a strong position to a weak one in 2024. "Their current situation can even be called a stalemate," he said. According to the expert, in the first quarter of next year, OPEC+ will be waiting for the actions of the US President-elect Donald Trump administration regarding the oil exports of Iran, Venezuela and partly Russia.
According to his estimates, if Trump's policy towards Iran is as tough as many expect it to be, the geopolitical premium in oil prices in 2025 may be even higher than in 2024. The price may drop to $75-78 if prices are supported by the expected tightening of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
"But much will also depend on demand, possible sanctions against Russian oil exports, and OPEC+ decisions to lift voluntary restrictions on oil production. Scenarios with a much sharper price drawdown are quite realistic, in a pessimistic scenario with the average annual price fixed closer to $ 65," Belogoryev concluded.

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