Inflation and growth of rates: the main risks for the global economy

Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise, National Research University Higher School of Economics, commented on the data of economic statistics regarding the rapid recovery of the world economy to a REGNUM correspondent.

"World trade returned to pre-pandemic levels in December. Leading indicators such as PMI indicate continued positive dynamics - in particular, the global PMI in February was at its highest levels since 2018," Salikhov said. An improvement in the situation on the world oil market is evidenced by data on a decrease in oil reserves in storage facilities and a steady rise in prices.”

According to Salikhov, the main risks in the short term are associated with potential mistakes in the anti-crisis policy.

“In particular, in recent months in many countries, including Russia, there has been an acceleration of inflation,” Salikhov explained. – Probably, the main driver of inflation is large-scale anti-crisis spending and programs, as well as monetary pumping from the main central banks. Rising inflation means that central banks may tighten monetary policy, which could lead to an increase in interest rates. The recent rise in US government debt rates is a good example that the situation with ultra-low rates can change quite quickly."

According to the economist, after the record deficits in 2020, fiscal policy will also tighten in 2021-2022, which can also cause negative consequences.