The game on liquefaction

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented for the Expert magazine." (2025. №10 (22). Pp. 78-83) on the dynamics of the global LNG market in 2025-2030.

Alexey Belogoryev believes that the global market is entering a period of prolonged boom in the construction of new gas liquefaction facilities. He also sees the United States and Qatar among the leaders here, but Russia, according to the analyst, stands apart due to sanctions pressure and the threat of a complete embargo on Russian LNG supplies to the European Union.

Alexey Belogoryev agrees that the global LNG market will face a supply surplus in the coming years.

"If we add up all the capacities under construction, calculate the real supply from them, taking into account the underutilization typical for many plants, and compare it with the baseline demand scenario, then supply will clearly exceed demand at least until 2029," he notes. — According to my estimate, by 2030 the global demand for large-tonnage LNG will amount to slightly more than 600 million tons per year, by 2035 — about 650 million tons. Demand growth will be constrained by the contradictory positioning of gas within the framework of the energy transition, the expected compression of the European gas market, as well as the preservation of pipeline alternatives, in particular in the case of the Power of Siberia-2 project."

"Russian LNG is almost unknown outside of Northeast Asia, and even there, the main demand has so far been for Sakhalin gas. It is necessary to open new sales markets in South and Southeast Asia in the face of increasing competition, emerging supply surpluses and soon falling prices. Such conditions are hardly favorable," Alexey Belogoryev says.

Thanks to the war of duties unleashed by US President Donald Trump, Russian LNG has an unexpected geopolitical advantage, especially in the eyes of China, which will clearly be extremely cautious about importing LNG from the United States.

"In 2025, international trade will amount to at least 426 million tons per year (+4% YoY), in 2026 it will grow, according to preliminary estimates, to 460 million tons (+8%). Demand has not been satisfied over the past few years. And the current market growth is primarily due to the start of mass commissioning of new liquefaction capacities," the Director of Research at the Institute for Energy and Finance said.