Gas is leaving Russia: what happens to LNG under sanctions

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the current state and prospects of LNG supplies to China and Europe from Russian large and medium-tonnage plants.

On December 8, Gazprom's LNG Portovaya LNG plant delivered a Shipment of fuel to China for the first time since the introduction of US sanctions against it in early 2025. The gas carrier Valera (formerly Veliky Novgorod), which has also been under sanctions since January 10, bypassed Europe and Africa and arrived at the Chinese Beihai terminal. The port used to receive LNG from Australia, the USA, Qatar and other countries, but since August it has been receiving LNG only from Russia, and all shipments from the Arctic LNG 2 plant are heading there, Alexey Belogoryev says.

Another Russian LNG plant located in the Baltic, Cryogaz-Vysotsky, was not so lucky. The Novatek-owned company was also sanctioned in January. The last shipment from the plant was on February 18 to Belgium, and since then the plant has been idle, Belogoryev says. It is difficult to supply LNG to China from Cryogaz-Vysotsky, the plant was not intended for large vessels, but was focused on short distances inside the Baltic and North Seas, the expert recalls. Single shipments from it reached a maximum volume of 13,000 tons, which is quite a bit by the standards of the LNG market.

"Perhaps the plant will partially switch to low—tonnage shipments within the country, but there is still little demand for them," Belogoryev says.

The full embargo on Russian LNG, which the EU plans to impose, does not leave Cryogaz-Vysotsky with much choice, the expert believes. In his opinion, in order to load this plant, we need a strong development of domestic LNG consumption in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.

"For example, all excursion vessels plying the Neva River and the St. Petersburg canals should be converted to liquefied natural gas. As far as I know, there are such plans," the analyst notes.

Two—thirds of the decrease in Russian LNG supplies in January -November 2025 is due to the downtime of Portovaya LNG and Cryogaz-Vysotskaya, and another third is due to the beginning of the displacement of Yamal LNG from Europe by American liquefied natural gas, Belogoryev says.

According to the results of January — November 2025, more than 72% of shipments from the Yamal LNG plant accounted for the EU, the expert clarifies.

Sakhalin-2 is likely to be safe in the future, as Japan continues to stand by it.

"The shortage of ice—class tankers is the main factor that is currently hindering the growth of exports from the Arctic LNG 2 enterprise. And it is still not clear when the plant will receive the tankers ordered specifically for it from the Zvezda plant," he says.

The refusal to issue British insurance will lead to additional costs for exporters and reduce the available freight volume, Belogoryev believes.