Europe is running out of gas

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the prospects for Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas supplies to the EU and gas relations in the Russia–USA–EU triangle:

"The first priority will be at least the partial restoration of Ukrainian transit to Slovakia, Austria and Hungary, at least these three countries will insist on this. Another question is will there be any deliveries, when will they be, and to what extent will there be deliveries to Germany? From Germany, accordingly, they may already be diverging to other countries in Northwestern Europe.

There is a general dilemma of choosing between Russian pipeline gas and American LNG. Back in the spring of 2022, the possibility of a new dependence on American LNG instead of Russian gas was actively discussed at the expert level in Europe. The situation has not changed much in three years. The United States is also unhappy with Europe, because European companies shy away from signing long-term contracts for 10-15 years for the purchase of American LNG. European companies are not ready for this, because they do not understand the prospects for demand even in three to five years.

In 2021, Russian supplies amounted to just over 140 billion cubic meters to the EU countries. I think that in the most optimistic scenario of warming relations, supplies can be restored to about 50-60 billion cubic meters maximum. I don't see the potential for more volume simply because the market has changed, it has become smaller. The general policy is aimed against increasing demand and to reducing it. In addition, pipeline supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan have increased, primarily LNG supplies."