Europe is not pumping gas

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Expert magazine on the situation with UGS filling and gas balance in the EU ahead of the heating season.

Alexey Belogoryev noted that in the period from the beginning of April to the end of September 2025, EU countries pumped 25% more gas into storage facilities than in the same period of 2024, but the low level of reserves at the end of the 2024/25 heating season, with limited gas supply and demand stabilization, makes it difficult to achieve the goal of filling UGS facilities by 90%.

According to Belogoryev's estimates, pumping in October — November, based on long-term averages, may be in the range of 5-6 billion cubic meters. At the same time, no later than the beginning of November, with the onset of the heating period, UGS facilities will switch to net gas extraction mode, he points out. Based on this analyst's statement, European countries have another month to replenish their storage facilities.

"In total, in October and November, at least the same 6 billion cubic meters will be taken from UGS facilities in Europe, and more in cold weather. For example, in October — November 2024, the withdrawal amounted to almost 13 billion cubic meters. Therefore, by December 1, it is unrealistic to increase reserves to 90%," he believes. Alexey Belogoryev notes, that a good result for the EU will be the UGS occupancy rate of 80-85% by the specified date. "If there are no abnormal cold weather and interruptions in LNG imports, such a volume of reserves will make it possible to survive the heating season painlessly," he concluded.

Alexey Belogoryev also draws attention to Europe's increasing dependence on LNG imports. He believes that Europe has practically no other alternatives: pipeline gas imports have sharply decreased primarily due to the termination of transit through Ukraine, and its own production provides only an additional 0.5 billion cubic meters for all European countries.

The increase in LNG imports, according to his estimates, amounted to about 22.5 billion cubic meters in January — September 2025 by the same period of 2024. Most of the deliveries were made from the USA.