Russian gas exports to the EU via the Turkish Stream remained a record

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the reasons for the growth and short-term prospects for Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe.

The entire increase in Russian supplies from April 1 to April 16 was provided by Hungary (by 59.2% year-on-year) and Greece (by 3.6 times), but this effect is provided by a low base, Alexey Belogoryev explains. At the same time, Romania, Bulgaria (estimated gray imports), Serbia and North Macedonia, on the contrary, sharply reduced imports, the expert adds.

In the case of Hungary, in August—September 2023, there was a noticeable increase in Russian gas supplies through Serbia at the same time as a sharp decrease in gas flows from Austria, the expert continues.

"I will assume that Gazprom redirected Russian gas supplies to the Balkan Stream, which in 2022-2023 were still going to Hungary through the Austrian Baumgarten," he explains.

However, compared with March 2024, the average monthly deliveries to Hungary decreased by 9.1%, and to Greece — by 7.8%, Belogoryev estimates. "Therefore, I would not say that we are witnessing some new trend in April," the expert concludes.

"The threat of termination of Ukrainian transit may support supplies: if a clear agreement on its continuation is not reached by November-December, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary will most likely strive at the beginning of winter to minimize gas extraction from UGS, increasing current gas imports to a maximum," the analyst suggests.

However, in his opinion, it is worth focusing on maintaining the total supply of Russian pipeline gas at last year's level — about 24 billion cubic meters.

"At the same time, Turkish transit may increase to 13-13.5 billion cubic meters compared to 12.2 billion cubic meters. m in 2023," Belogoryev concludes.