Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy Studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, at the Sakhalin Oil and Gas Forum, suggested that oil exports from Russia, after a decline due to the embargo, will increase by mid-2023.
The introduction of an embargo on the supply of Russian oil by the European Economic Community (EEC) will lead to a decrease in export volumes in early 2023, but by the middle of the year, supplies are expected to increase due to the East countries. This was announced on Wednesday by Alexey Gromov at the session of the Sakhalin Oil and Gas Forum.
The situation is more complicated, according to the expert, with the export of Russian oil products, since about 60% of its volume falls on the European market, and other regions are not ready for such large purchases.
“We understand that the main risk is the EU sanctions embargo, which will come into force on oil from December 5. <…> There may be a reduction in oil exports from the beginning of 2023 by 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day compared to with the highs that we reached this year, when we exported over 5.3 million barrels of Russian oil per day.<…> We believe that despite the fact that a decline in Russian oil exports is likely in early 2023, by the middle of next year, supplies may grow, primarily due to the development of supplies to China, India and other countries of the East," Gromov said.
“We understand that the closer the date of the start of the EEC oil embargo on petroleum products, the closer, as they say, the risks that it is at the beginning of next year that our export indicators may seriously drop. In principle, [we expect] up to 20-30 % relative to our usual monthly rates," the expert said.
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