Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Vedomosti newspaper on the reasons for the increase in gas production and LNG production in Russia in Q1 2026 and the general prospects for their increase in 2026.
The increase in gas production this year is due to a number of factors – weather conditions, the effect of last year's low base and an increase in exports.
The weather factor is of key importance, Alexey Belogoryev notes. According to the UES System Operator (dispatcher of the Russian energy System), in January, the average monthly temperature in the regions of the Unified Energy System (with the exception of Eastern Siberia and a number of regions of the Far East) was -13.7 °C compared to -5.8 °C in 2025, in February -11.5 °C compared to -8.9 °C, in March -0.7 °C compared to +0.2 °C, the expert says. According to him, in general, the first quarter in Russia turned out to be the coldest since 2021.
Gazprom accounted for the main increase in gas production in January–March, Belogoryev says. Novatek's production in the first quarter increased by 3.1% to 22.3 billion cubic meters, the company announced in mid-April. This is due to an increase in shipments from the Arctic LNG –2 plant, he believes. Gazprom, as well as Rosneft and other independent producers have not yet disclosed data for the first quarter of 2026.
According to the expert's forecast, gas production in the country this year will grow by 4% to 690 billion cubic meters. At the same time, against the background of the results of previous years, this is "a continuation of stagnation," Belogoryev notes.
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