HomeMediaLatest NewsExperts do not expect a sharp rise in oil prices, even in the event of a US strike on Iran

Experts do not expect a sharp rise in oil prices, even in the event of a US strike on Iran

28 January 2026

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to TASS on the likely dynamics of world oil prices in the event of new US military and police measures against Iran.

According to Alexey Belogoryev, it is the geopolitical premium of US President Donald Trump that pushes oil prices to $68-70 per barrel. "We don't see a sharper price increase because the "Iranian factor" has been actively discussed for so long that the market has become accustomed to it," he said.

"If a military operation takes place in some form, the price range, in my opinion, will be between $65 and $90. All the alarmist scenarios predicting a price increase to $100-105, as before, are unjustified and remain just speculation," Belogoryev added.

In addition, the increase in oil prices is hindered by a surplus of its supply in the market, and for the OPEC+ participants, a slight drop in Iran's production will be rather good news, the expert believes. 

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