Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, commented to a REGNUM correspondent on the Bank of Russia forecasts, according to which the Russian economy will reach the level of 2019 by mid-2021.
According to Salikhov, in 2021, Russian indicators will be supported by the positive dynamics of oil production, which decreased by 8.6% in 2020.
“Domestic demand is recovering quite confidently this year. According to the current monthly indicators of Rosstat, the retail trade turnover in physical terms (that is, after deducting inflation) already exceeds the level before the covid-19 pandemic, at the same time, paid services and public catering are still 5-8% lower. If new serious waves of coronavirus do not occur, one can expect that the recovery in domestic demand will continue, Salikhov said. - The world economy is also showing strong dynamics. An indirect indicator is the boom in commodity prices. In particular, Brent oil prices exceed $ 70 per barrel. Many metals prices are at record levels over the past ten years. All of this points to a recovery in the global economy."
As Salikhov explained, central banks in these conditions are forced to raise interest rates. This can negatively affect financial markets, and through them - economic indicators.
“We expect that in the second quarter GDP dynamics will be 4.6% yoy. However, the achievement of the levels of the IV quarter of 2019 will occur rather by the end of 2021, and not by the middle, as the Central Bank expects, '' the economist said. - The main risks are associated with new waves of the pandemic. Another risk is associated with instability in financial markets due to tightening monetary policy. In many countries, there is an acceleration of inflation, which indirectly indicates a certain "overheating".
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