HomeMediaLatest NewsThe double "distillation" of Russian oil can only be stopped by aviation, but Trump does not look like a madman

The double "distillation" of Russian oil can only be stopped by aviation, but Trump does not look like a madman

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Svobodnaya Pressa on the possibilities of minimizing the impact of new US sanctions on Russian oil exports.

Alexey Belogoryev stressed that the scale of the problem is still not very clear.

— While market players are taking a closer look and analyzing the sanctions, Chinese ports and other counterparties are reinsuring themselves. It cannot be said that they will refuse to work with Russian oil on tankers that have been sanctioned, or cargo that is somehow connected with sanctioned companies.

We can say that there is a risk of a decrease in oil supplies (the change in the situation practically did not affect petroleum products) in January-February. This is unlikely to have a medium-term effect. If there are no new sanctions, it will take from several weeks to 2-3 months to adapt to the new sanctions situation.

How to solve the problem of overstocking?

— The discussed transshipment from ship to ship and the use of smaller ports are quite possible options. There are various schemes for circumventing sanctions that have been well developed not only by Russia, but also by Venezuela and Iran. The United States knows about them too, but not all methods can be blocked without entering into a big conflict with oil buyers.

Can Russia increase oil pipeline supplies to China amid sanctions?

— No, such capacities, as well as oil supplies to China via railways, are limited, they are almost packed to capacity.

Is Russia at risk of losing some of its sales markets?

— Of course, the minimum loss rate for Russian exported oil volumes is 15-20% until workarounds are found. If this happens, the circumventions will not be disclosed, so that the West does not come up with heavier sanctions. As for Trump's policy regarding Russian oil exports, he will work exclusively for the interests of the American oil and gas industry and will try to strengthen it, including at the expense of Russia.

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