Long-term gas exports from Russia to Turkey

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the prospects for Russian gas exports to Turkey.

According to his estimates, the export of Russian pipeline gas to Turkey in 2026-2027 will remain at about 20 billion cubic meters. The figure may be in the range of 10-23 billion cubic meters starting in 2028. He clarified that he was making such a forecast without taking into account Turkey's possible re-export of Russian gas to the EU and the Balkans, as well as, possibly, to Syria, in return for current Azerbaijani supplies.

Turkey has a number of opportunities to replace Russian gas, for example, the available capacity of regasification terminals - imports in 2024 amounted to only 12 billion cubic meters out of a possible 45 billion, Belogoryev said.

He also spoke about the prospects for the growth of Turkey's own gas production - the authorities plan to increase it to 15 billion cubic meters of gas per year from about 3.5 billion cubic meters in 2025.

"Their realism is still questionable, but the factor of domestic production, which played almost no role until 2023, is indeed growing rapidly, limiting the prospective need for gas imports," the expert said.

At the same time, he stressed that having the opportunity to replace Russian gas is not at all equal to having such a desire or, moreover, plans, since this would clearly contradict the basic principles of Turkish energy and foreign economic policy. Russian gas will definitely remain in Turkey's import "basket," although supply volumes may fluctuate, Belogoryev is confident.