Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the 12th package of the EU sanctions.
It is not very clear how the European Commission wants to really increase the pressure on compliance with the price cap, argues Alexey Gromov. So far, the proposed measures are to ensure that the EU countries notify the European Commission about the sale of tankers on the secondary market and, accordingly, about all transactions with Russian oil.
The new sanctions package also extends the opportunity for Japan to import Russian oil without complying with the price cap imposed by the G7 and the EU.
"Such a mechanism for monitoring compliance with the price cap will probably affect European carriers, but it will have a relatively weak effect on the shadow fleet due to the fact that legally creating a new company to replace the one that fell under blocking sanctions is possible, especially since many ships that have already fallen under them are functioning again and oil cargo is being transported again," the expert notes.
With the current market configuration, Europe has reached the limit of the possibilities of sanctions pressure on Russia, Alexey Gromov summarizes. This has been said for quite a long time, and we see that sanctions, starting with the 10th package, are introduced with quite a long debate, as is the current 12th package, which was agreed upon in rather mild terms just before the New Year.
"From an energy point of view, Europe has only two areas left where it can somehow significantly influence Russia. This is a ban on the supply of Russian uranium to Europe, fuel for nuclear power plants, but Hungary opposes this. The second is LNG, but this may not happen until 2025-2026, because there are currently not enough alternative suppliers."
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