Oil production in Russia is shifting to hard-to-recover reserves

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Moskovskaya Gazeta on the prospects for hard-to-recover oil production in Russia.

Oil production in Russia is carried out at more than 2,000 fields, and gas condensate is produced at almost 300 more fields, Alexey Belogoryev said.

If we take the conditional top deposits in terms of production, then among the most depleted are Romashkinskoye (Tatarstan), Arlanskoye (Bashkiria), Samotlorskoye, Mamontovskoye, Fedorovskoye (Khanty–Mansi Autonomous Okrug), etc. There are still deposits with a low level of depletion (less than 15-25%): for example, Russkoye, Novoportovskoye and Tazovskoye (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District) or Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Alexey Belogoryev noted.

According to the expert, for the majority of large and medium-sized oil fields operated in Russia, the depletion rate of reserves usually exceeds 50%, and the waterlogging of productive formations often reaches 70% or higher. The highest production is typical for the North Caucasus, Southern and Volga Federal Districts. In our main "breadbasket", Western Siberia, the situation is still better, but even there, the "aging" of reserves is rapid.

"If we talk about the Bazhenov suite in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (a close analogue of American shale oil), in recent years we have achieved great success in import substitution and increasing the economic efficiency of production. But there are still far from any serious extraction rates. It will be a great success if in 5-7 years it will be possible to increase production at Bazhen to at least 10 million tons per year," the expert noted.

If we talk about the future until 2030, oil production will remain a function of two external variables – demand (primary processing at Russian refineries and exports) and restrictions within OPEC+, the expert predicts. Taking these factors into account, it is likely that oil production, including gas condensate, will continue to stagnate in the range of 500-520 million tons per year. From the point of view of current demand, the main uncertainty is related to the repairs of refineries, oil depots and the oil port infrastructure.