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Gas price dynamics in the coming months

07 October 2021

Salikhov Marcel R. President, Principal Director on Economic Studies, Head of the Economic Department

Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute for Energy and Finance, made a forecast on the gas prices dynamics in the coming months in an interview with Lenta.ru.

Despite the downward trend, in the coming months gas prices will remain high - in the region of $ 500-600 per thousand cubic meters, Marcel Salikhov said. According to him, this is largely due to seasonal factors, but over time, prices should fall to the usual level of $ 300.

Gas prices on the European ICE stock exchange collapsed. During the trading on October 7, quotations fell below $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters.

Salikhov emphasized: the beginning of a decline in prices is a normal, predictable situation, which, despite the general opinion, is beneficial, including for Russia.

“The speculative pressure ended, and prices logically went down, this was expected. Anything above $ 1000 has nothing to do with the physical market, the balance of supply and demand. Besides, it is not profitable for our country as well. Russia was quite happy with the long-term price that has been observed over the past ten years, hovering around $ 300. It not only meets the interests of Gazprom itself, but also does not create much space for competitors. So in the long term, such a price is in the interests of the company, allowing not only to maintain its market, but also to gradually increase it, receiving a good export income,” the economist explained.

Too high prices, Salikhov noted, on the contrary, play into the hands of competitors, making their offers more attractive.

Despite the fact that a return to more adequate marks would now be beneficial to all parties, this should not be expected in the near future. The economist is confident that gas prices will remain quite high in the coming months.

“I think they will stay somewhere in the range of $ 500-600,” Salikhov suggested. - Demand is growing now and for seasonal reasons - cold weather sets in. So the high level will remain for now, at least to support the proposal".

For several weeks in September and early October, the cost of gas in Europe rose continuously, setting several records. In the afternoon of October 6, it was $ 1,924 per thousand cubic meters.
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