Even frosts won't help: an abnormally cold winter won't enrich Russian gas companies

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the prospects for completing the heating season in the EU, given the low level of gas reserves and fluctuations in spot prices.

So far, the current supplies of pipeline and liquefied natural gas to the EU remain stable and there are no signs that they may decrease, Alexey Belogoryev says.

"This is the main guarantee for the absence of gas shortages: imports account for an average of 60-65% of gas consumption in winter, while gas extraction from underground storage facilities accounts for no more than a third," he notes. 

The EU has indeed entered the heating season with rather low gas reserves, 13.5 billion cubic meters lower than a year ago, which creates some nervousness and keeps prices at an elevated level. But, Belogoryev says, the decrease in reserves in the EU's UGS facilities is slower than a year earlier: for example, from January 1 to January 18, 2026, it was less by 6.4%. Even if the decrease is equal to last year's high figures, by April 1, when the heating season ends, about 23.5 billion cubic meters of gas, or 23% of the nominal storage capacity, will remain in UGS.

"It's small, but it's not an anti-record. For example, in 2018, reserves fell to 18 billion cubic meters, or up to 18.4% of capacity," he recalls.

However, Belogoryev adds, low reserves at the end of the heating season are fraught with problems: it will be more difficult than in 2025 to accumulate sufficient reserves by next winter. As a result, there is a high chance that the EU will meet the next heating season with even smaller reserves.

"For Russia, worrying about the European gas market is a phantom pain," he says. — No matter what happens on the European market, it no longer affects the volume of Russian gas exports, which the EU has pledged to abandon no later than 2027, the expert notes.