HomeMediaLatest NewsWill Namibia be able to replace Angola in OPEC+

Will Namibia be able to replace Angola in OPEC+

16 April 2024

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Prime agency on the meaning and prospects of Namibia's possible accession to OPEC and OPEC+.

"According to most estimates, large-scale oil production in Namibia will begin only in five years - in 2029. Until then, Namibia's participation or non-participation in any agreements with OPEC or OPEC+ is a purely political and partly even symbolic issue, the country does not yet have economic weight in the oil market," commented Alexey Belogoryev.

According to Belogoryev, in 2030-2035, Namibia's production could reach about 350-400 thousand barrels per day, and by 2035 it could reach 700 thousand barrels or even more. For comparison, OPEC members Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea are currently producing about 250, 200 and 60 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

"Namibia may well become the tenth largest oil producer in OPEC with a share of 1-1.5% of the cartel's production," he said, noting that Angola's oil production now stands at 1-1.2 million barrels per day.

As Belogoryev suggested, Namibia may join OPEC+ first.

"Nevertheless, in order to be a member of the organization of oil exporters, it is necessary to carry out this export. Rather, we may be talking about some special associated format of participation," Belogoryev added. However, according to him, OPEC's attention sends a signal to the market that the prospects for oil production in Namibia should be taken seriously.

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