HomeMediaLatest NewsWhat awaits the ruble and oil exports in 2025

What awaits the ruble and oil exports in 2025

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Moskovskaya Gazeta on the prospects for the Russian oil and petroleum products export in 2025 and the possible impact of Donald Trump on oil production in the United States.

In the baseline scenario, taking into account the January US sanctions, Russian oil exports, including gas condensate, may decrease by 4% in 2025 to 221 million tons per year, Alexey Belogoryev said.

"The reason is a temporary disruption in supply logistics and a recovery in demand growth at Russian refineries amid stagnating production. The decrease in crude oil exports can be partially offset by an increase in exports of petroleum products: by 1.4% YoY, to 119 million tons, according to our estimates. The main increase will be provided by the supply of diesel fuel and motor gasoline," the expert said.

"Fundamentally, the oil shale revolution in the United States is coming to an end, its growth potential is almost exhausted, and this dramatically slows down the overall rate of increase in oil production. The efforts of the federal government can stimulate production in the long term, in 3-5 years, but the medium- and even more so the short-term effect will be insignificant. Therefore, I would not expect any major changes in the dynamics of oil production in the United States in 2025 or even in 2026. Trump can significantly influence the market, but through the sanctions mechanism, first of all, if he returns tough sanctions against the Iranian oil sector. For Russian oil exports, Trump's return is still a neutral event. His further steps to strengthen, which is more likely, or to ease sanctions against the tanker fleet and exporting companies will be important," Alexey Belogoryev concluded.
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