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What to expect from the OPEC+ meeting

31 May 2024

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the OPEC+ policy and the global oil market balance.

Belogoryev expects "an extension of the current restrictions until the end of the year" following the results of the alliance meeting. He believes that easing current production restrictions by the end of the year still looks like a risky step for OPEC+.

"Concessions can be made for 2025, but now the market is not in a condition for OPEC+ participants to afford a noticeable increase in production," he adds.

Oil production and demand in the world today "are balancing near zero with a constant risk of a transition to an oversupply, and by the end of the year this excess is almost inevitable due to the expected increase in production outside OPEC+," the expert explains.

"In addition to the United States (production is projected to increase to 0.8 million barrels per day in 2024), production is also expected to increase in Brazil, China, Canada, Guyana and Norway (a total of about 0.7 million barrels per day)," Belogoryev summarizes.

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