The budget puts on Urals

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the prospects for Russian oil exports in 2026 to Kommersant FM.

So far, there are no signs that new sales markets will appear, Alexey Belogoryev notes:

"Russian oil has been supplied to three countries for the last three and a half years. These are mainly India, China and Turkey. There are small shipments to Egypt and elsewhere, but this is a secondary destination. Basically, Russian oil and its exports depend on India and China. In 2026, nothing will change in this sense, there can only be a reconfiguration between them, that is, more oil will go to China, less to India. Turkey's position is also more or less stable so far: the country has no plans to abandon the import of Russian oil, although many additional difficulties have arisen.

Discounts will remain at a high level throughout the winter, but should go down in the spring if there are no new additional restrictions, protective duties of the United States and something else like that. It is clear that any new major wave of sanctions will lead to an increase in discounts again, as has happened many times before. But if nothing new happens, I think the situation will begin to stabilize by March, and discounts will decrease from $20-25 to about $15, maybe even to $12 per barrel."