Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the prospects for the oil and gas production growth in the United States and the dynamics of world oil and gas prices in 2025.
The Institute of Energy and Finance (IEF) expects that the increase in oil production in 2025 will amount to 600-700 thousand barrels per day, that is, "approximately at the level of 2024 or slightly lower."
"Because Trump came to power, the growth rate of production in the United States will not change in 2025," Alexey Belogoryev states. He believes that the efforts of the American president can stimulate oil and gas production only in three to four years.
"The paradox of Trump is that he talks all the time about his desire to lower oil prices, but most of the foreign economic and foreign policy measures that are associated with him and that he himself voices lead to their growth," Belogoryev sums up.
According to him, in the scenario of a moderate increase in sanctions, the average annual price of Brent in 2025 will remain close to current values, that is, it will be in the range of $ 75-80 per barrel. If the sanctions are sharply tightened, which is less likely, the quotes will rush to $ 90 per barrel, he believes.
According to the IEF estimates, in 2025, gas production in the United States may increase by about 15 billion cubic meters compared to the same period last year. At the same time, against the background of slowing domestic demand, the entire increase will be accounted for by LNG exports. The average annual spot gas prices in Europe and Asia in 2025 will be 10-12% higher than in 2024.
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