Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the “Mash. Industry" magazine on the impact of the so-called 15th package of EU sanctions on the Russian "shadow" fleet and the global oil market.
The expansion of sanctions by the United States, which is currently being discussed in the American administration, may cause real problems. They will increase pressure on Asian companies involved in the transportation of oil by sanctioned tankers, Alexey Belogoryev explains.
US sanctions may disrupt some of the logistics chains, and it will take time to build new ones, the expert says. Russian companies will suffer cost losses due to rising costs, but total physical oil exports from Russia are unlikely to decrease.
"Everyone has already become accustomed to the gradual expansion of sanctions against the shadow fleet, and the uncertainty associated with them, which was in the first half of 2023, has passed. As long as sanctions do not lead to a significant reduction in at least the average quarterly export of Russian oil, they are of little interest to anyone on the market. For participants in futures trading, this is background news noise," Alexey Belogoryev notes.
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