Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, summed up the results of 2025 for the Russian oil industry in comments to the business magazine Profil.
Alexey Gromov believes that the average price of Brent crude oil by the end of 2025 will not exceed $67 per barrel.
There are many reasons for this. Firstly, the slowing growth in demand from the world's largest economies, primarily from China, which has been the main driver of demand in recent years.
Actually, the second reason for the price drop is a significant increase in supply. From March to December 2025, OPEC+ countries supplied an additional 2.9 million barrels per day to the market. In addition, Latin American countries have become more active: production in Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, and so on has increased significantly. As a result, a serious overhang of supply over demand has formed in the market. As of December 10, there were a total of up to 1.5 billion barrels of unsold oil on board the tankers at sea.
All of the above, according to the expert, indicates that we are entering a period of protracted surpluses of both oil and gas, and the new trend may last for the next few years."This corresponds to the indicators that were observed in 2014, when there was a serious price crisis in the oil market, which later led to the formation of OPEC+," Alexey Gromov recalled.
By the end of the year, the physical volume of Russian oil exports will decrease, Alexey Gromov believes. But they will decrease in proportion to the reduction of production in the country. If in 2024 we extracted 516 million tons, then in 2025, as President Vladimir Putin stated, production will decrease to 510 million tons. Exports will decrease to 230-233 million tons against 240 million tons a year earlier.
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