Sergey Kondratiev, Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel to the Kommersant newspaper.
Typically, the cost of gasoline in Russia decreases in the second half of autumn and winter, as the intensity of travel decreases. In addition, this year demand is negatively affected by a decrease in economic activity, the effect of partial mobilization and the departure of several hundred thousand economically active citizens abroad, Sergey Kondratiev said.
In October, prices for summer diesel fuel at SPIMEX fell to 53.5 thousand rubles per 1 ton, being at the lowest levels since March 2022, Sergei Kondratiev notes. Now prices on the stock exchange have stabilized in the range of 54.5-55 thousand rubles per 1 ton, however, the probability of a new price reduction, in his opinion, remains very high. The expert notes that diesel fuel exports have a high seasonality: usually in winter, up to 60-70% of all summer diesel fuel produced was exported (58% in October 2021), while only 35-40% is shipped to foreign markets in summer, as domestic demand increases.
So far, it is at a high level - according to Bloomberg, the export of Russian diesel fuel to the EU alone in October amounted to 2.14 million tons against 1.6 million tons in October 2021, Sergey Kondratiev notes. However, if the EU imposes sanctions on the import of Russian oil products from February 2023, the summer diesel fuel market may face overstocking, which will lead to a noticeable decrease in prices.
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