A barrel at $200: is the world facing an oil crisis modeled on 1973

Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the situation on the global oil market for the business magazine Profil.

According to Alexey Gromov, now the consumption of reserves dampens possible panic in the market. The expert notes that in the near future – May – June 2026 - the release of reserves will become one of the two key factors determining the movement of oil prices. The second factor could be an escalation of the conflict by Washington.

In addition to unpacking stocks, market stability is also facilitated by the fact that a number of alternative suppliers (the United States, Brazil, and African countries) quickly joined the process of replacing Middle Eastern oil and started shipping it to Asia. For exporters, this is a chance to capitalize on high prices, and for the Asian region, it is an opportunity to mitigate the problem of impending shortages.

Meanwhile, the Persian Gulf countries have to consistently reduce production: there is nowhere to put oil. In March and April, they could still fill onshore oil storage facilities and tankers used as floating storage facilities, but now these reserves have been exhausted. Alternative export routes, such as pipelines, are extremely limited, and their expansion requires significant investments and time.

Alexey Gromov sees the most likely scenario as follows: if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, but there is no escalation of hostilities (the United States does not hit Iran's energy infrastructure, and Iran does not strike back at oil-producing and transport facilities in the Persian Gulf countries), then the global economy will be able to live for at least a month without feeling physical oil shortage. Yes, prices are likely to continue to rise and catch up to around $115-120 per barrel. But this movement will be slow, with an eye on whether there is progress in resolving the Hormuz crisis and how long it will take.

Another, more dramatic scenario is realized if President Donald Trump nevertheless decides to escalate the conflict and as a result, the facilities of the oil production and oil transportation infrastructure of the Persian Gulf will be destroyed or damaged. Then the markets may panic. After all, the oil–bearing states of the region still have the opportunity to restore production and resume exports relatively quickly, within three to six months. If the oil fields and plants fail, there will be no such opportunity.