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The Barrel of Failure

07 November 2025

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Expert magazine on the prospects for the LUKOIL's foreign assets sale.

The governments of the countries where Lukoil has a controlling stake in assets will be forced to request licenses from the US Treasury to continue operations, Alexey Belogoryev suggested. In his opinion, we can talk about refineries in Bulgaria and Romania, as well as mining assets in Iraq and Uzbekistan. In Uzbekistan, Lukoil, according to the analyst's estimates, accounts for about 20% of the total gas produced in the country — about 10 billion cubic meters per year.

The base case scenario for Lukoil could be the sale of assets in parts, Alexey Belogoryev noted. Buyers can be located either by activity profile, or by country or sub-regional principle, he added. The analyst named Western majors among potential buyers, since national companies in the countries where Lukoil operates are unlikely to be able to replace the financial, technological and human resources of the Russian oil company.

Alexey Belogoryev estimated the value of all Lukoil's assets abroad at $10-15 billion rubles, Sergey Kaufman from Finam at $12 billion rubles.

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