Baghdad is left without the Pentagon

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Expert magazine on the US troops withdrawal completion consequences in September 2026 for Iraq’s oil industry.

The United States retains control over Iraq’s main revenue from oil exports, which historically (since 2003) has been channeled through accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, notes Alexey Belogoryev. Washington retains the right to approve or block transactions related to oil contracts, regulate the volume of cash dollar supplies to Iraq, and monitor commercial banks cooperating with Baghdad.

Iran remains the main potential disruptive force in Iraq, but the withdrawal of US forces is precisely intended to calm it down, so no new risks to the country’s oil infrastructure arise after the Americans leave, the expert adds.

The thesis about a “security vacuum” after the US withdrawal from Iraq is a gross exaggeration, believes Alexey Belogoryev. He notes that most international investors are assessing the situation calmly.

“At the same time, in the short term, the adoption of new investment decisions may be temporarily delayed — due to the overall military and political situation in the Persian Gulf,” the economist clarifies.

An increase in spending on security and insurance is already taking place, but not due to the withdrawal of American troops, but because of the general security crisis in the Persian Gulf. Alexey Belogoryev is confident that the overall structure of foreign investment in Iraq’s oil industry will remain diversified.

“Most importantly, the United States retains indirect financial control over Iraq’s oil revenues for an indefinite period,” he concludes.