Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance commented to RIA Novosti and the Prime news agency on the proposed decision of the OPEC+ Group of Eight at the August 3 meeting to further increase production in September and on the impact of OPEC+ production growth on the global oil market in the summer and autumn of 2025.
The expert noted that after this, the market will switch to a seasonal decrease in demand, and it will take time to look around and assess the impact of production growth on the oil balance."It is most likely that a decision will be made on an additional increase in oil production in September by 548,000 barrels per day. The monthly cancellation of the cuts should, in theory, stop there: the 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts that have been in effect since January 2024 will be completely exhausted," Alexey Belogoryev said.
What will prices say?
The agency's interlocutors believe that the OPEC+ production growth by another 0.5 million barrels per day next month is already included in current prices. But, according to Belogoryev, this does not mean that its will not lead to further price reductions, although the effect will be delayed - through the balance of supply and demand in the fourth quarter, at the end of the high summer season.
"In general, there are still high risks of Brent prices moving towards $60 per barrel by the end of the year from the current $70-72, especially if geopolitical risks weaken at least a little," Belogoryev added.
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