Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Business FM on the OPEC+ policy and the likely dynamics of world oil prices in 2025:
"I do not think that OPEC+ will take drastic steps to increase its own production, on the contrary, in recent months we have seen that the OPEC+ countries are ready to respond promptly to price changes and postpone growth. But of course, it is impossible to postpone indefinitely, because they are losing market niches and curbing production contradicts their plans, the plans of companies that should also receive a return on investments previously invested. Therefore, OPEC+ will have to increase production next year, but by what amount is still unclear, price dynamics depend on it.
In addition, the election of Donald Trump, on the one hand, will stimulate, as everyone expects, an increase in production in the United States, but this will not have a quick effect. In 2025, this will have little effect on anything. If Trump pursues the tough foreign policy that everyone expects of him, the impact on the market will be the opposite of what he himself says. That is, he says that prices will decrease, but his foreign policy activity is likely to lead to higher prices. A drop to $ 30-40 is just such an alarmist scenario, so far there is nothing to indicate that it is being implemented. No one within OPEC+ benefits from a sharp decline in oil prices right now, and therefore I do not think that anyone there wants and even more so will contribute to a collapse in prices. In Russia, the higher the price, the better, total oil and gas revenues are likely to be able to be kept at a more or less stable level."
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