Alexey Gromov, Principal Director on Energy studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, gave detailed comments to the Neft and Capital Internet portal about the possible consequences of a prolonged military conflict in the Middle East for the global economy and global energy markets.
If the conflict in the Persian Gulf drags on for more than three months and the threat of passage through the Strait of Hormuz persists for a long time, this will have grave consequences for the entire global economy, and not just for the global energy market, Alexey Gromov believes.
Yes, the United States has stated that it is ready to escort ships in the strait, but today it has clearly defined that the main goal is to disarm Iran, and only then to maintain navigation through the Strait.
Gromov draws attention to the fact that so far the cost of raw materials is not growing as sharply as it could. The reasons he cites are, firstly, the sufficient amount of oil reserves, including raw materials on sea tankers. These reserves are now being actively consumed. Secondly, according to the expert, Asian buyers (who suffered the most from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of Middle Eastern imports) have an alternative: Asia is actively working with countries in Africa (Angola, Nigeria), Latin America (Brazil), as well as with the United States and Russia.
Alexey Gromov sees the prospects for oil from Russia in the current situation. The price of black gold from Russia will rise following the price of oil on the world market. And since supplies from Russia do not depend on the Middle East, the price of Russia's flagship Urals variety may rise significantly above what was observed in December 2025 and January 2026.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, and the downtime of LNG plants in Qatar will last just as long (and QatarEnergy has already announced that it will take a month or two to restore operations), then the current level of gas prices is not the limit."That is, discounts will decrease faster, and the price of oil from Russia may return to the level of the summer of 2025, when discounts on Russian oil were $ 10-12 per barrel to Brent oil. This is a realistic scenario," the expert believes.
Unfortunately, liquefied methane producers from Russia will not be able to take full advantage of rising gas prices on the world market, according to the principal Director on Energy at the Institute of Energy and Finance. The demand for LNG from Russia will definitely grow, but its role, unfortunately, will be limited, Alexey Gromov said.
In his opinion, there are a number of obstacles. The first is anti—Russian sanctions against gas liquefaction projects.
The second obstacle is the insufficient number of gas carriers at the disposal of LNG projects to meet demand from both Europe and Asia.
At the same time, the expert notes a very important point: now, while Russian LNG is not yet banned in Europe, there is a great opportunity to make money, so you should carefully consider the decision to leave the European gas market right now. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the day before that Russian gas could leave the EU "right now." He did not give the go—ahead to stop - he instructed the government to work out the issue.
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