An African demarche with an American flavor

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Monocle magazine on the causes and consequences of Angola's withdrawal from OPEC.

"The fact that Angola is dissatisfied with the current OPEC+ policy is not news," says Alexey Belogoryev. — In the recent past, in 2008-2016, the country produced 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, now only 1.1 million. This causes phantom pain, although the reason for the decline in production is not at all in OPEC or OPEC+ quotas, but in a lack of investment and in the resource base deterioration. Leaving OPEC is unlikely to help Angola. It looks more like an explosion of offended self-esteem: we talk, but they don't hear us. Perhaps some internal political factor also influenced it."

Angola's decision will not lead to the collapse of OPEC. Individual countries (Qatar, Indonesia, Ecuador) have left it before, and this did not have any special consequences. "OPEC's position, of course, will weaken, but not much," the expert believes. — The backbone of the organization is strong, it consists of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq, which accounted for 67 percent of the cartel's production in November. If you add Iran to them, it will be 79 percent. Angola's share was only four percent, and on the scale of global production — just over a percent."