Forbes published a column by Sergey Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, on the possible ban consequences on the of gasoline and diesel fuel export from Russia.
High oil prices, the weakening of the ruble and overloaded railways have created ideal conditions for a new fuel crisis in Russia. According to Sergey Kondratiev, the ban imposed by the government on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel will allow to overcome the shortage and price growth in the near future, but is not a long-term solution to the problem.
The government began discussing stabilization measures in early August, but for a long time did not dare to take tough steps. As a result, it was necessary to almost completely restrict the export of gasoline and diesel fuel. This measure will create an oversupply in the domestic market, overcome shortages and price increases, but is not a long-term solution to the problem.
Now the Russian authorities are facing a fork in the road: a new change in the tax system or the rejection of "targeting" fuel inflation and allowing prices to rise "above inflation". In the first case, the payment of the damper in full may be returned, which will allow prices to stabilize at the level of 50,000-60,000 rubles per ton, or an increased export duty on petroleum products may be introduced. A duty of $250 per ton of gasoline was discussed earlier, and this measure probably remains on the agenda. Recall that the already introduced export duty with a "floating rate" — depending on the ruble exchange rate — will not apply to oil and petroleum products. However, such a policy may lead to a redistribution of flows and an increase in crude oil exports, rather than gasoline production.
In the second case, you do not need to do anything. And, perhaps, this is not the worst option, especially if the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in the domestic market will decrease when world prices fall.
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