HomeAboutOur WorksPublic activityPublicationsForget about Europe: how the United States closes the LNG market to Russia after pipeline gas

Forget about Europe: how the United States closes the LNG market to Russia after pipeline gas

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

The Novye Izvestia newspaper published an article "Forget about Europe: How the United States closes the LNG market to Russia after pipeline gas", based on an interview with Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance to the Geo-Resources of Russia youtube channel on April 7, 2024.

Of the 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas that Gazprom supplied to European countries in 2021, two years later there were very few left, Alexey Belogoryev said in an interview with the youtube channel "Georesources of Russia".

"The big question is what will happen in 2025. The situation with Ukrainian transit is unclear. There will be no long-term contract, in any case there will be a short-term capacity reservation. It is unclear who will book, on what terms. All this is accompanied by comments from the European Commission, which assures that it can refuse altogether from January 2025. In 2025, these supplies may amount to 15-16 billion cubic meters. In 2030, if nothing changes geopolitically, it will be in the region of 15 billion," the expert says.

"If geopolitical circumstances change and relations with the EU warm up, a partial restoration of supplies is possible. The question is in its scope. In the most positive scenario, additional supplies to the EU could supply 20-30 billion cubic meters in 2030. The EU has definitely ceased to be a key market forever. If the current relationship persists, it will degrade, or a relatively small recovery growth is possible," Alexey Belogoryev notes.

With the strictest restrictions on pipeline gas, the main focus should be on the sale of liquefied natural gas, but there are difficulties here too. Unlike Russian oil, against which the United States is not going to impose sanctions (except for a decorative price ceiling) in order not to bring down prices on world markets, everything is tough on the gas market.

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