It cannot be ruled out that the crisis will spread into autumn and winter

The T-Magazine published in the Economics section a wide-ranging interview with Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, about the fuel crisis in Russia.

— Which part of the fuel crisis is related to the physical shortage of fuel, and which part is related to future purchases and the panicked behavior of motorists?

— By the middle of July, the excitement naturally subsided. In theory, a boom in demand leads first to a surge in consumption, then to a decrease: motorists have already stocked up on fuel or have somehow adapted to the shortage.

So now the main problem is the physical shortage of fuel due to strikes on Russian refineries. It is precisely due to the acute shortage of production facilities.: By the middle of July, according to various estimates, up to 30-40% of gasoline production capacity is idle.

— How will the crisis continue to affect the cost of transportation and the goods delivery time?

— Russia is a big country, so the availability of fuel and its prices vary greatly from region to region. In some places, the shortage is critical, as in Crimea, in others the situation is difficult, as in the North Caucasus, Novosibirsk region or Tuva, in others the shortage is moderate, as in St. Petersburg and Leningrad region. And somewhere, as, in particular, in the Moscow agglomeration or in the Irkutsk region, there are clear signs of improvement.

Therefore, there is not and will not be a single picture. A physical shortage of fuel can lead to disruption in the supply of goods, but diesel fuel is used for most long-distance cargo transportation, with the availability of which the situation as a whole remains noticeably better. And light commercial vehicles are often dual-fuel.

Another thing is that the rising cost of all types of fuel is embedded in the prices of goods and increases inflation. And here it is necessary to take into account not only the price tags at the gas station, and in all regions of the truck's route, but also downtime. If a driver has to stand in line for hours to fill up, that's also a cost.

In addition, the prices of goods include expectations of the future cost of fuel. And in conditions of high uncertainty, they can be very different.

We will be able to judge how all this will affect the final cost of goods only later: the inflationary effect will be fully noticeable in autumn and winter. So far, the stores are operating on old stocks and on the basis of existing long-term contracts with suppliers. The main price increase will start when all this is over.

— Will there be enough diesel fuel for farmers, cargo carriers and other large consumers at the same time?

— In conditions of scarcity, a complex and contradictory supply system is taking shape right before our eyes, where purely market mechanisms are combined with almost planned distribution under government control. How all this will work is still unclear. It is only clear that the priority now is to supply agriculture and farmers with fuel for the harvesting campaign and subsequent sowing of winter crops.

Naturally, no one will leave railways, the armed forces and government agencies without diesel. Much attention is likely to be paid to the supply of municipal transport, although this strongly depends on regional capabilities.

Private car owners will inevitably be the last and least protected in such a system. Somewhere in the middle are mainline freight carriers and logistics companies. Of course, they are remembered and their importance is understood, but in most cases they do not have to count on any special privileges.

— Can bus and intercity routes start to be cut?

— They are already happening, but unevenly. Remote rural transportation, suburban routes, and international commercial flights on the least congested destinations are likely to suffer the most. There are no general statistics yet, but reports from the field indicate that the problem exists.

— Are emergency services like ambulances and firefighters protected from local fuel shortages?

— Emergency services are supplied with fuel as a matter of priority, even in case of acute shortage. Failures are probably possible, but only if the local authorities are negligent.

— Independent gas stations cannot always buy fuel directly at the exchange price and are forced to purchase it from intermediaries at a much higher price. At the same time, large chains receive fuel from their parent oil companies. Do you expect mass bankruptcies of independent gas stations following the current crisis?

— Their bankruptcies occurred annually and before that due to seasonal "price scissors": wholesale gasoline prices in July - September rise briskly almost every year against the background of increased demand, and the growth of retail prices at gas stations of oil companies is artificially restrained by virtue of their agreement with the government. As a result, independent gas stations either have to work at a loss in order not to lose customers, or raise prices to market levels, and then demand plummets: with a significant price difference, consumers usually choose the gas station where gasoline is cheaper.

As a result, the cost of each liter of gasoline for gas stations is growing even more: the cost of salaries, land rent, maintenance, electricity and other fixed costs do not disappear anywhere.

So by the fall, we should expect a whole wave of bankruptcies of independent gas stations.