Monocle magazine (No.51. 2024. pp. 4-5) published an interview with Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, on the prospects for Russian gas supply to countries dependent on Ukrainian transit in the case of transit termination.
— What difficulties and risks arise for alternative routes: through Bulgaria (Russian gas) and through Romania ("European")?— It is possible to redirect Russian gas through a long bypass route — through the Turkish Stream and then in reverse mode through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline through Bulgaria and Romania. But before reaching Moldova, this route crosses the Ukrainian border twice in the Odessa region. In other words, we will still have to rely on the goodwill of Ukraine.
Transnistria has nothing to replace Russian gas in 2025, even if we imagine that it will be ready to pay for gas at market prices, which in itself is far from reality. Starting in 2026, Turkey could do this by increasing LNG purchases (its terminals are severely underutilized) and then sending it in a regasified form through the same Trans-Balkan gas pipeline. But in 2025, Turkey will not have such an opportunity due to the limited supply of LNG on the European market.
— Are there any ways to provide energy and heat to the PMR with other heat carriers: coal, fuel oil?— First of all, it is expensive to supply Russian gas to Moldova through Turkey: offhand it is two and a half times more expensive than through Ukraine. Secondly, this gas will need to be supplied via the first line of the Turkish Stream, designed to supply the Turkish market: it needs to have enough spare capacity, especially in winter (the second "European" line will be clearly overloaded from 2025). Thirdly, as I have already noted, this route still relies on the same Ukrainian transit, which makes it no less politically vulnerable than the traditional one.
— What alternative sources, routes and (or) mechanisms for obtaining gas after January 1, 2025 remain with European consumers, with whom Gazprom continues to have long-term supply agreements?- Unfortunately, there are no economically available alternatives.
— If the Ukrainian transit is completely stopped, then only Turkish transit, but it can additionally, taking into account supplies to Moldova, send no more than a third (four to five billion cubic meters per year) of the volume of gas that currently flows through Ukraine (about 15.4 billion cubic meters in 2024). If we talk only about the EU, it is possible to increase it within two to three billion cubic meters per year, and then if it is possible to negotiate with Romania on the use of its gas transmission network for transit to Hungary. By the end of 2024, the Balkan Stream, which goes to Hungary through Bulgaria and Serbia, will have less than a billion cubic meters of free capacity per year.

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