Turkey has halved the purchase of Russian oil

Mikhail Zhuravlev, senior expert at the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to RBC on the situation on the oil market.

Repairs at the STAR refinery (Turkey) will have a slight impact on Russian exports in September—October, Mikhail Zhuravlev notes.

"To redirect 200-250 thousand barrels per day is not a difficult task for Russian exporters, especially given the flexible discount system. In autumn, the main factor affecting Russian exports from western ports is the volume of processing," the expert says.

Zhuravlev believes that the dropped volumes will probably reorient to the Indian market. In addition, LUKOIL's Druzhba supplies are expected to resume in October, which will also "straighten the balance." In July, Ukraine, through which the pipeline passes, suspended LUKOIL supplies. Hungary and Slovakia linked the restriction to the expansion of Ukrainian sanctions against the Russian company. However, in September, Hungarian MOL settled the issue by concluding agreements with oil suppliers and pipeline operators, according to which the company becomes the owner of all volumes already on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.

Among other factors that can support the demand for Urals, the expert lists the fighting in Lebanon and the postponement of OPEC+ production recovery for two months — until December. In particular, Israel's military operation on Lebanese territory may raise oil prices again, which will emphasize the attractiveness of Urals.

"The profitability of refineries in Asia is now at a very low level, so importers are forced to count every penny and discounted Urals, along with Iranian and Venezuelan oil, will be very useful," Zhuravlev concludes.