Russia may increase fuel supplies to Africa to 0.6-0.8 million b/d by 2027-2028

Sergey Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the Russian oil products export to the InfoTEK internet portal.

Sergey Kondratiev confirmed that the Russian oil products supplies to the countries of North and West Africa did indeed increase many times over in 2022-23, and Africans, unlike many other countries, pay for oil products at market prices.

Kondratiev explained that after the introduction of sanctions, buyers from the EU began to buy oil products from refineries in the Middle East, India, Africa, which traditionally supplied gasoline and diesel to the countries of North and West Africa.

"As a result, a free niche appeared on the African market, which was occupied by Russian suppliers. For Russia, this is an important region - it is geographically close (due to relatively low logistics costs), is in short supply and is growing rapidly. And, contrary to popular belief, they are ready to pay for oil products at market prices," the analyst said.

The expert added that in the short term, supplies will remain at the level of 0.4-0.5 million barrels per day, since African countries also have restrictions on increasing purchases (due to the need to address diversification issues and fulfill current supply contracts), as well as in Russia (due to the current restrictions within the framework of OPEC +).

"In the medium term, I think we can see supply rise to 0.6-0.8 million bpd by 2027-28," the analyst concluded.