Sticks in wheels: why Russian coal miners are not able to keep exports

Alexander Titov made a comment to Forbes about the possible reasons for the drop in Russian coal exports this year.

The forecasts of a reduction in Russian coal exports in 2024 are justified, Alexander Titov, senior expert at the Institute for Energy and Finance says. According to his calculations, Russian exports have already lost 11 million tons, falling from 109 million tons in the first half of 2023 to 98 million tons in January–June this year.

"I believe that there will be no such decline in the second half of the year," Titov says. — Firstly, coal shipments through the terminal in Taman are being restored after the company that owns it, OTEKO, reduced tariffs for coal transshipment. Secondly, coal exports were already relatively weak in the second half of 2023. But I would not expect export growth in July–December either: prices remain low, and from September the export duty on thermal coal will return, which means that the export economy will sink again. I would expect a decrease in exports by 13-14 million tons by the end of the year, which is close to the IEA forecast, but a little more optimistic."

"In the first half of the year, production decreased by only 0.7%, despite a drop in exports," he says. — There are two factors. Firstly, the consumption of electricity in industry is really growing, which allows us to keep the demand for coal. Secondly, coking coal production volumes are growing due to the launch of new processing facilities at the Elginsky deposit of the Elgaugol company”.