Gaseous according to the circumstances

Sergey Kondratiev, Deputy Head of the Economic Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Kommersant newspaper on the increase in mineral extraction tax (MET) on gas.

The budget will receive another 2 trillion rubles from Gazprom of additional revenues in 2023–2025 by raising the MET on gas. We are talking about the withdrawal of 50 billion rubles monthly, as well as on the adjustment of the MET formula itself. According to analysts, such withdrawals look acceptable for Gazprom so far, but in the future, it will be more difficult for the company to maintain the previous level of profitability due to lower export earnings.

In the first half of the year, Gazprom showed record results, earning 2.5 trillion rubles of net profit, Sergey Kondratiev recalls. Against this background, in his opinion, the withdrawal of just over 600 billion rubles per year looks quite acceptable. However, it will not be easy for Gazprom to repeat the results of 2022 in the next few years.

“The company's export earnings will come under pressure due to a decline in exports to the EU, and the recent accident at Nord Stream will not allow a quick increase in supplies even if relations with Europe are normalized,” he believes.

At the same time, contracts with other importers of Russian gas - China, Turkey - use an oil peg, and not indexation at spot prices, which will negatively affect the average export price. So, according to his forecast, in 2023, Gazprom's export revenue may decrease by 19% year-on-year, and the consolidated net profit will amount to about 3.5 trillion rubles.