Sergey Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Rossiyskaya Gazeta on the introduction of a social norm of electricity consumption for citizens.
Differentiated tariffs are already applied in 7 regions of our country. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) offers to stimulate their distribution to all regions. The aim of the initiative is to reduce cross-subsidization in the electricity market, which is growing every year, as well as to combat "gray mining", which is often disguised as "civilian consumption".
A lot depends on how high the level of electricity consumption for the population that falls under the basic tariff will be, Sergey Kondratiev believes.
In most regions where the division into consumption within the social norm and above it has already been carried out, the basic tariff and the tariff above the social norm differ by 1.4-1.5 times. Regional regulators will set the social norm based on both the current volumes of cross-subsidization and geographical conditions (electricity consumption is higher on average in the northern regions) and demand characteristics (for example, a high proportion of households using electricity for cooking and heating housing), the expert explains.
If consumption in excess of the social norm accounts for 15-20% of the total electricity supply to the population, then with an increase in basic tariffs from July 1 by 6.3% (in 2024), payments to the population on average may increase by 12-13%. But it should be noted that an increase in prices over 6.3% will affect a small category of citizens, the vast majority of consumers use electricity less than established by the social norm.
I think, at least in 2024, the regions will take a fairly conservative approach to the introduction of a social norm and its overall effect on fees will not exceed 1-2%. (and not 5-7% as shown in the calculation above), Kondratiev believes.
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