Europe is spoiling itself with gas again

Sergey Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Kommersant newspaper on the dynamics of natural gas consumption in the EU.

We can see the positive dynamics of gas demand in the EU in the coming months, mainly due to the effect of the low base of the second half of 2022: if in August 2022 demand decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, then in September — by 9.5%, and in October - by 23.3%, Sergey Kondratiev recalls.

"Therefore, the demand growth rate in the coming months may be double-digit. But, of course, the dynamics will strongly depend on the temperature factor and the generation of wind farms," he believes.

Despite the recovery in demand against the background of low prices, the upward trend, in his opinion, remains fragile — gas consumption in industry in Italy and France is declining, while demand for gas in the electric power industry and from the population remains weak. The expert also draws attention to the fact that the GECF statistics are based on ENTSOG data and the final estimates may be higher: for example, for Italy, Eurostat estimates gas consumption in August at 3.33 billion cubic meters (minus 12.6% year-on-year), the GECF at 3.2 billion cubic meters (minus 11% year-on-year).