Russian coal exports will increase by 4.5% in 2025, and the growth may continue in 2026

Alexander Titov, senior expert at the Energy Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to InfoTEK on the volume of coal exports by the end of 2025.

By the end of 2025, Russian coal exports could grow by 4.5% and reach 205 million tons, Alexander Titov estimated. The positive dynamics may continue in 2026, the expert expects.

"By the end of 2025, we expect exports at the level of 205 million tons. My forecast for 2026 is 205-208 million tons, i.e. stable volumes or a small increase," he said.

According to the expert, shipments abroad increased by about 13% in November compared to November 2024, and there are several reasons for this trend.

"The companies managed to redirect and transport significant volumes of coal to the ports of the Far East, where the logistical distance is shorter, prices and profitability are higher. This happened, among other things, due to the output of the port of Elga by 1 million tons per month and the expansion of Daltransugl," the expert explained.

The "low base" of last year and the high summer demand for Russian coal from South Korea also played a role.

According to the expert, November export levels will continue in December, ensuring year-on-year growth. As for coal prices, Alexander Titov expects them to decrease for metallurgical grades and some recovery for thermal coal.