What awaits coal miners in 2025

Alexander Titov, Senior expert at the Energy Department of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented on the Russian coal industry results in 2024 and prospects for 2025 to the InfoTEK Internet portal.

The expert noted that due to the low base of 2024, coal exports will increase this year, but the country will not return to the level of 2023 yet. Recall that in 2023, 213 million tons were exported.

Titov also said that this year Russian coal miners will have difficulties obtaining margins, especially in the west, as the growth of exports in this direction contributes to lower prices.

"I expect low export prices to remain in 2025. I don't see any growth drivers. China and India realized that they needed to increase their production, and then imports would be cheaper. I think that if one of the major players (Indonesia, Australia, USA, South Africa) does not fail, then prices in 2025 will be in the same range as in 2024," he added.

At the same time, production will remain stable with a slight decline, as it was in 2024, the expert believes. The stability of the domestic market will be facilitated by an increase in demand for brown coal from thermal power plants in Siberia and the Far East, where there is an active increase in electricity generation and consumption. Another factor is related to the fact that processing plants have been launched in Yakutia, which means that even with an increase in production, the physical weight of exported coal decreases, because coal concentrate is exported, and impurities and waste are separated.