Alexander Titov, Head of the Global Oil Market Sector at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Forbes on the gasoline production and shipment changes on the Russian market.
Periodic restrictions on gasoline exports actually reduced its export in the first nine months of 2024 by 37% year-on-year, to 3.2 million tons, Alexander Titov says. According to him, the ban increased shipments to the domestic market by 4-5% during this time.
Also, the downtime of refinery capacities, taking into account planned and unscheduled shutdowns, in the first half of 2024 were higher than last year, but in August-October they were already 8% lower than the same period last year, Titov continues. According to his calculations, in September, refinery downtime amounted to 150,000 tons per day, or 17% of the total refinery capacity. The peak of refinery capacity downtime was passed in the last decade of September — 177,000 tons per day. From October 1 to October 15, downtime was already 155,000 tons per day, and on October 16-31 — 132,000 tons per day."But in September, gasoline shipments to the domestic market decreased by 8% compared to September 2023, and in the first half of October, the decline increased year—on-year to 9%," he emphasizes. — But it is important to take into account that last year September and October were months of high gasoline supplies to the domestic market, because then, as now, there was a ban on gasoline exports. That is, it turns out that, on an equal footing with the export ban, the current situation is slightly worse. Perhaps this is due to difficulties in rail shipments of fuel: many shippers noted that there are difficulties with the delivery of tanks for the export of fuel and with the approval of applications for transportation from Russian Railways."
"Therefore, shipments will be restored in October," Titov believes.
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