Sergey Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to the Kommersant Ural newspaper on the main trends in the Russian oil and gas sector development.
Sergey Kondratiev said that according to the results of a year and a half of the special military operqtion, the situation in the oil and gas sector remains stable.
The situation in the oilfield services market, according to analysts, remains even more stable than in the oil production market. According to Sergey Kondratiev, drilling, current and major repairs of wells, hydraulic fracturing operations remain at a high level. The penetration in production drilling in 2022 amounted to a record 28.4 million meters, and in the first half of 2023 — 14.7 million meters (+8%).
"China and India have become the main importers of Russian oil, in August they accounted for 75% of all oil supplies by sea, and taking into account exports via ESPO and through Kazakhstan, their share exceeds 85%. I think this situation will continue until the EU countries lift the unilateral restrictions they have imposed. But I am not sure that even after the lifting of restrictions, Russian exporters will be ready to return to the European market "on any terms"," the expert believes.
In his opinion, "stability of the game rules" is now important for both mining companies and equipment manufacturers.
"Russian manufacturers have good positions in the basic segments of oil and gas equipment — the share of imported ESPs (installation of an electric center pump), equipment for well repair in 2022 was close to 0%, in the drilling rig market — 30%. But the dependence on imports of hydraulic fracturing fleets, coiled tubing installations and other high-tech equipment remains high - over 80%. Russian production will grow, including through the creation of technological partnerships of domestic enterprises with oil companies," the expert stressed.
"It is important to understand what taxes, licensing rules, environmental payments and so on will be not only next year, but in five, ten years. The experience of recent years has shown that oil companies are often ready to finance both R&D and the creation of prototypes of equipment. The state assistance can reduce costs, but first of all the industry needs simplification of regulation," Kondratiev explained, adding that this will allow faster implementation of developments based on "reverse engineering" and design new facilities.
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