HomeMediaLatest NewsProspects for Russian LNG are narrowing

Prospects for Russian LNG are narrowing

03 November 2023

Belogoryev Alexey M. Research and Development Director, Director of the Center for Energy strategic analysis and forecasting

Alexey Belogoryev, Research and Development Director of the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the US sanctions against the Arctic LNG 2 project:

"A serious overproduction crisis is expected on the global LNG market in the second half of the 2020s. The competition is very tough. First of all, American companies are interested in weakening Russia's position in this market, because it, with its rather ambitious program for the construction of new facilities, is one of the main, if not the main, competitor of the United States in the coming years.

The prospects for Arctic LNG-2 are actually quite vague so far. It depends on what position foreign shareholders will take. Blocking sanctions create quite large risks for all foreign participants both in terms of shares ownership and in terms of further LNG exports. I do not exclude that, for example, Total will try to exit the project. Japanese shareholders are likely to have a more difficult position. It is not at all clear how Chinese companies will act. It all depends on how they will assess the risks.

At the same time, even if all shareholders retain their shares, the project will face great logistical difficulties, since it will need to be provided with its own fleet. Currently, gas carriers owned and operated by foreign companies are mainly used. Russian players have a relatively small fleet of their own, and there are quite big difficulties with the construction of new gas carriers.

Most likely, the same scheme will operate here as with the oil fleet, that is, if some vessel delivers from Arctic LNG-2, it will be difficult for it to enter foreign ports if American companies or dollar settlement are somehow involved."

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