Sergey Kondratiev, Principal Director on Economic Studies at the Institute for Energy and Finance, commented to Kommersant FM on the Russian oil export in 2024.
Sergey Kondratiev believes that Russian oil purchases are unlikely to decrease significantly in 2024. But some risks, he said, still remain:
"If restrictions related to price ceiling control are tightened, this may force some buyers to leave the Russian market, and some, for example, insurance companies and firms engaged in transportation. All this can lead to an increase in discounts for Russian oil at a moment.
But I would not expect such a scenario in which oil supplies from Russia to China or India will be sharply reduced, because it is difficult for these countries to find alternative suppliers now.
We see that refiners in China are concerned even by the fact that Venezuela is redirecting a small part of supplies from China to India. There is not much free oil on the market, and in fact, if you want, for example, to reduce imports of Russian oil, then you need to buy more of it, for example, in the Middle East and Latin American countries, and this is premium oil."
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