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Nagorno-Karabakh. There will be no total war

28 September 2020

Salikhov Marcel R. President, Principal Director on Economic Studies, Head of the Economic Department

President of the Institute Marcel Salikhov commented to Finam the consequences of aggravating the Nagorno-Karakh conflict for reliability of Azerbaijani oil supplies to the world market.

So far, both transport arteries are working smoothly, both companies told to Argus. In the current situation, the risks are low, since we are talking about «a local conflict that does not affect the oil infrastructure," says Marsel Salikhov to Finam.ru.

«Even if we theoretically assume that Armenia will be ready to harm Azerbaijan by attacking the oil pipeline, one must understand that the key shareholders of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline are Western companies — BP, Equinor, ENI and others. Therefore, this will primarily affect their financial interests. It is important for both conflict parties to form a favorable international opinion. Therefore, there is no sense for Armenia to attack the BTC oil pipeline, as this will immediately make it an aggressor. «

A representative of one of the international oil companies in the region in an interview with Finam.ru emphasizes: «Oil here is a deterrent, something like a safety net against total war.»

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